Picky young home buyers could lead housing recovery

The Home Front

04/06/2011 10:00 PM


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Generation X — young families and adults ages 31 to 45 — are likely to lead the home-buying recovery when it gets underway in late 2011 or early 2012, predicts the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

With today’s affordable home-loan rates and low prices, potential Gen-X home buyers with job security and the need for housing likely will think it’s a good time to get off the fence and purchase a new or existing home or condominium, experts say.

Gen X makes up 32 percent of the population of home-buying age — generally defined as those who are at least 30 years old. While the nation’s Gen-X population isn’t the largest, it’s the most mobile, and the group has strong opinions about the design features the new homes they want to buy, according to the NAHB analysts.

“The Gen-X home buyer is in full force with their careers and they need to accommodate growing families,” said housing analyst Mollie Carmichael, principal of John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif.

In sharp contrast, even though they constitute 41 percent of prospective home buyers, Baby Boomers continue to wait for the market to improve, and their decisions to delay retirement also delay their decisions to downsize into a smaller home, noted Carmichael, whose company recently surveyed about 10,000 buyers and potential buyers in 27 metro areas.

The national survey found that the vast majority of people were optimistic about a new home purchase. Between 85 percent and 89 percent said that now was a good time to buy a home.

Only 13 percent surveyed said they thought home prices would continue to fall. This is further evidence that it’s “not all about price,” Carmichael said. “They want something compelling, from a design or personalization standpoint.”

Although McMansions are passé and the average home size is shrinking, a majority of prospective buyers said they would like a bigger home than the one they have.

“These are first-time buyers or younger families looking for more room to grow,” Carmichael said.

Seventy percent said that they were willing to pay $5,000 more for a green home, but those responding to the survey said that they expected new homes to already have many green technology features.

Gen-X buyers also said they would pay a premium for dark-wood cabinets, a separate tub and shower, and a fireplace in the living room, and more preferred a great room over formal spaces, such as a separate dining room.

While community amenities are important to Gen-X buyers, 46 percent said they prefer a home in a large-lot, suburban development, versus the 21 percent looking for a traditional or “walkable” neighborhood.

Heather McCune, director of marketing at Bassenian/Lagoni Architects in Newport Beach, Calif., emphasized that design will be important in generating Gen-X home sales in the emerging future marketplace.

“The notion of ‘build it and they will come’ no longer works. Design matters,” McCune said.

Buyers also are looking for homes with a connection between indoor and outdoor spaces, even in colder climates, to create the perception of greater home size, even if the space is only usable for part of the year, she said. They also want more storage, an open floor plan and flexibility in the garage.

While Gen-X numbers are smaller than the age groups that precede and follow them, their numbers have been enlarged by steady immigration,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

“Gen-X buyers may wait longer than their predecessors to establish their own household or buy a home because of the impact of the recent recession, but [housing-formation] trends are still likely to occur as they have for past generations.”

Don DeBat’s weekly real estate column is syndicated by DeBat Media Services. For more home-buying information visit his website at www.dondebat.net.



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